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Germany’s Christian Democrats (CDU) were once coined a “conservative” party, but over the years, they have seen a dramatic shift towards the left. Now, they look to further cement this leftward shift following regional elections in autumn of this year, where the party is already signaling it will join a coalition with the newly formed BSW party led by Sahra Wagenknecht.
In many eastern states, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is well in the lead, but BSW has chipped into that lead. In many states, the only possible coalition that could form, based on current polling, involves some combination of the AfD and CDU, or the CDU and BSW.
The CDU is clearly moving in the direction of the BSW and rules out any possible coalition with the AfD.
The newcomer left-wing party, the Alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), which bears the name of its founder, now has 10 percent support nationwide, according to the latest polls.
The party is just one percentage point behind the governing coalition Green Party and five percentage points ahead of the smallest party in the coalition, the Free Democrats (FDP). Its popularity is shown by the fact that the conservative CDU is now seeking the party’s cooperation at the regional level.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz said he could not “imagine a coalition with Ms. Wagenknecht at the federal level.” However, CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann does not rule out coalitions between his party and BSW at the state level. “Whether the CDU will form a coalition with the BSW in the states must be decided locally,” Linnemann told the Funke media group. “We have a party conference resolution not to work with either the AfD or the Left.”
The CDU and the BSW, in other words, are going to work together to keep the AfD out at the local level in eastern states such as Saxony and Brandenburg. That benefits both parties. The CDU maintains power in the east, the BSW gets some semblance of power, and the CDU does not have to change any of its federal policies, such as arming Ukraine, at the federal level.
The BSW, for its part, has also ruled out an alliance with the AfD.
As some of the polls show in the eastern states, AfD may be on top, but if it has no coalition options, the party has nowhere to go. The CDU, although it is openly telegraphing it will work with the far left, does not appear to be harmed by this stance in the polls, where it is performing nearly as well as the AfD in many of these states.
At the federal level, BSW has reached 10 percent in the polling, according to Insa. Another key finding of the Insa poll is that, despite the smear campaign by the majority of parliamentary parties, support for the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues to grow. The party, whose main ambition is to fight illegal immigration, now stands at 18 percent, while the opposition CDU/CSU alliance remains in first place with 30 percent. The SPD, the strongest party in the governing coalition, is third with 15 percent, followed by the Greens and BSW with 11 percent and 10 percent, respectively.
The latest poll comes less than a month before the parliamentary elections in Saxony and Thuringia on Sept. 1.
The AfD could be the winner of the two east German elections, but the BSW is also making strong inroads in both states.
Analysts say the rise in support for the two parties suggests that they could gain significant strength in the Bundestag, which others have called populist, following next September’s parliamentary elections. For now, however, the focus is on Saxony and Thuringia.