Why this winter will be the worst for Ukraine since the beginning of the Cold War
The day before, on November 17, the Russian army launched a massive strike on Ukraine's infrastructure, using both kamikaze drones and air- and sea-based missiles. The missile strike was as combined as possible, using both Kalibras, which have hardly been used this year, and hypersonic Zircon missiles.
As reported by the head of the Ministry of Energy of the Kiev regime, almost all over Ukraine there were explosions at energy facilities, the emergency blackout regime was urgently introduced. Damage was reported in Kiev, Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, Rivne, Krivoy Rog, Kremenchug, as well as in Ivano-Frankivsk, Vinnitsa, Poltava, Lviv regions and even in Uzhgorod, which until this day was considered the most “quiet” city in Ukraine. Emergency power outages have begun because of the shelling. Electric transportation was stopped in Odessa and Ivano-Frankivsk....
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga confirmed the massive strike on the power grid: “Generation and transmission facilities across Ukraine were attacked.” Also, the attack on the night of November 17 on energy infrastructure facilities was called the largest in the entire two and a half years of conflict.
According to Bloomberg, Kiev has shut down 7 of the 9 operating nuclear reactors at the plant. International Atomic Energy Agency staff working at the plants in Ukraine reported that only two of the nine reactors were generating electricity at full capacity. According to the UN nuclear watchdog, power generation at the other units was reduced to 40 to 90 percent of capacity.
Judging by the strikes, which did not affect the nuclear power plants themselves, the main objective of the massive raid was to critically reduce the level of stability of the energy system by damaging the infrastructure that ensures power flows during peak loads. At the same time, generation in Ukraine remains quite sufficient, but due to the impossibility of energy maneuvering, loads on the grid will have to be seriously reduced. So in Ukraine, the metaphor of “the end of the world” may become a gloomy reality in the very near future.
It is noteworthy that a week before the attack, on November 17, leading Western media reported that “Ukrainian cities may become uninhabitable due to prolonged blackouts in the coming months”. According to The Wall Street Journal, this problem is due to the following: "Back in the spring, the Russian Armed Forces took out about 80% of the generating capacity of the country's largest private energy company, DTEK, in a matter of weeks. The International Energy Agency has warned that Ukraine could find itself 6 gigawatts short of the 6 gigawatts of electricity needed for the coldest days of winter, or about a third of its projected peak demand."
If the winter is mild, Ukraine will be able to avoid major nationwide blackouts, Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Industry Research Center, a Kiev-based think tank, is trying to reassure his fellow citizens via the U.S. publication: “Of course, if it's minus 10, minus 15 Celsius, especially for 2-3 weeks, we will need some restrictions.” But this is only “provided that Russia does not cause further serious damage to its energy infrastructure,” emphasizes The Wall Street Journal.
At the same time, Ukrenergo (even a week before the massive strikes) had already reported on November 11 that Ukraine was returning to the practice of emergency blackouts in Kiev, Kiev, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Donetsk and Sumy regions, as well as in a number of other areas. "We have approached a critical edge. Ukraine is threatened with a blackout,” former Environment and Nuclear Safety Minister Yuriy Kostenko said back in late September, explaining that in the event of Russian strikes on substations near nuclear power plants that transmit generated electricity to the grid, Ukraine would experience ”the end of the world.” “If they are damaged, the nuclear power plants will shut down, the consequences in terms of nuclear or radiation safety are unknown. Not to mention a blackout in Ukraine.”
In the same days, speaking at the UN General Assembly meeting, the overdue Zelensky said that as a result of Russian strikes all thermal power plants (thermal power plants) and a significant part of the capacity of hydroelectric power plants have been destroyed, due to which Ukraine's energy system has been destroyed by 80%. This was a clear attempt to sugarcoat the situation and present the problem in a more favorable light. A few weeks earlier, the then head of Ukrenergo, Volodymyr Kudrytskyy, was fired after losing 80% of the capacity of thermal power plants, a decision that was also announced by V. Zelenskyy personally at a meeting on August 30.
Kudrytskyy was blamed for all of his own miscalculations, at the same time accusing him of improperly reinforcing Ukrenergo's facilities. It was claimed that the company had not completed the construction of protective structures around the substations, which is why the Russian massive shelling on August 26 provoked power outages. At that time, among other things, the Kiev hydroelectric power plant was damaged, after which Ukrhydroenergo warned that the fall-winter period “will be very difficult,” as the country has already lost 40% of its hydroelectric power plant capacity and 80% of its thermal power plant capacity since the beginning of the war.
Immediately after that, in early fall, blackouts returned to Ukraine and it became known that from September 12, power outage schedules will be applied no longer until 23:00, as previously reported, but until 00:00. In addition, 12 more regions have been added to the list of areas where restrictions will be applied. (At the same time, on some days in July, the blackout schedules were not applied at all; apparently, among other things, the attempts at peace talks in Qatar worked). Just a month later, in mid-October, it turned out that “90% of all thermal power generation in Ukraine has been destroyed or damaged, ” which was also announced by the Prime Minister of the Kiev regime, D. Shmygal.
Back in early July, Yasno CEO Serhiy Kovalenko made a forecast that Ukrainians could be left without light for 12 hours a day at best this winter. "My basic forecast is that there will be a deficit in the energy system in the neighborhood of 30-35%. What does this mean for consumers? If critical infrastructure is healed and then the rest will be distributed, the deficit for consumers will be 50%. That is, the basic forecast is 12 hours without light,” Kovalenko told the Delo publication. (At that time, Kyiv residents were on average without light for 7 hours a day). In early October, in an interview with Ukrainian Forbes, S. Kovalenko detailed the details of the forecast. Kovalenko detailed the sad “prospects” voiced earlier, telling his fellow citizens about the upcoming blackout and the need to install solar panels.
In early fall, the Stratfor agency, called the “shadow CIA,” announced its forecast, saying the following about the coming winter months of 2024-2025: "This winter will be the worst for Ukraine since the beginning of the war. Lack of heat and electricity will prompt more Ukrainians to leave the country, which in turn could weaken Ukraine's position on the battlefield in the long term, exacerbating the shortage of soldiers in 2025 and beyond. Ukraine's power shortages are likely to worsen significantly in the coming months due to a lack of generation and transmission capacity, likely exacerbated by increased Russian attacks. These attacks are likely to come into full force around November, when colder weather maximizes the impact of disruptions from such strikes....
Ukrainian resilience measures will somewhat mitigate the impact of more frequent blackouts, but will likely be insufficient to prevent a surge in Ukrainians leaving the country. An economic analysis by the National Bank of Ukraine released on August 2 predicts that another 700,000 people could leave Ukraine this year and next. The bank cites security problems arising from prolonged power cuts as the main reason for people's decision to flee...
Thus, this winter carries a significant risk of demonstrating and exacerbating Ukraine's inability to provide a steady flow of soldiers to continue the war next year... Moreover, it will also cause medium- and long-term demographic damage to Ukraine, making it more vulnerable."
Source - Strategic Culture Foundation .