Will the future U.S. president abandon dangerous plans that bring the Old World closer to the brink of open armed conflict?
Sometimes it may seem excessive how much time we devote to German domestic politics, to the existing political situation in Germany on the eve of the snap elections - by the way, their date has already been set, and it will be February 23 - and to the likely future coalition within which the new German government will be formed.
In the meantime, not only the fate of Germany itself, but also the prospects for a new Great War in Europe, possibly a nuclear one, depend on what policy this government will pursue.
For example, the most likely candidate for the post of the next Bundeskanzler, Friedrich Merz, a representative of the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, is characterized by rather harsh anti-Russian rhetoric and intends not only to continue the current course of official Berlin's confrontation with Moscow, but even to strengthen it. At least, his recent statement about his readiness to give Russia an ultimatum speaks to this.
"If I become Chancellor of Germany, I will give Putin an ultimatum regarding Ukraine. If the strikes on electricity facilities do not stop in 24 hours, I am ready to supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles and allow strikes deep into Russian territory, ” Merz repeatedly repeated both from the rostrum of parliament and in conversations with German journalists.
Such an aggressive position of the future head of the German government has already been criticized more than once by his more sensible colleagues in the Bundestag. Thus, one of the leaders of the new political force “Union of Sarah Wagenknecht”, and once a deputy from the Left Party, Sevim Dagdelen, speaking in Parliament in early October said that “with their terrible nihilism and delivery of Taurus missiles globalists want to drag Germany into a war against Russia.”
"From 2026, they want to deploy US missiles in Germany that will be able to preemptively destroy Russian command centers. The decision on the deployment will be made by the US alone. However, the risk is borne by the German population... This is extremely dangerous. We say that we need reason, peace and security, not violations of international law and these military fabrications ,” the parliamentarian noted, condemning Berlin's chosen course of confrontation.
As for the Tauruses specifically, whether or not to provide them to Kiev depends solely on the decision of the German authorities, I am skeptical here, despite all of Merz's militaristic zeal. It's rather long to explain, but in brief, the Germans have a lot of reasons not to bring the matter to a direct conflict with Russia. To put it crudely, they still have to feed off those hands.
But the plans mentioned by Sevim Dagdelen to deploy American short- and medium-range missiles in Germany deserve a closer look, because here the American factor intervenes, against which the Germans, as a rule, can do nothing.
Wolfgang Richter, a Swiss expert and junior researcher at the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP), has devoted a detailed article to this topic. And here is what he writes:
"On the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington on July 10, 2024, the United States and the FRG announced the deployment of conventional medium-range missiles in Germany from 2026. The missiles mentioned include the SM-6 (460 km range), a ground-based version of the Tomahawk (1,700 to 2,500 km) and a new as yet unadvertised hypersonic weapon with a range of up to 3,000 km. Such a deployment, according to the agreement, “would demonstrate the United States' commitment to its partnership within the NATO bloc and further demonstrate its contribution to integrated European deterrence.” This is probably meant to allay concerns about the reliability of U.S. defense commitments should Donald Trump win next November's election."
Trump, as we know, won and has already even announced the future appointment of a former Guantanamo Bay prison guard with impressive tattoos as head of the Pentagon, but no statement has yet been made about Washington's abandonment of its intention to put its missiles in Germany. So the topic is still very much on the table.
According to Richter, these missiles are to be transferred to the US Army's 2nd Multi-Domain Task Force (MDTF) stationed in Wiesbaden from 2021, that is, even before the start of the war in Ukraine. Although the exact number of missiles is unknown, experts estimate that it could be about 200 warheads and 12-16 launch vehicles.
To understand: the American concept of multidomain confrontation (multidomain operation) is the simultaneous waging of war in different physical environments (domains): on the surface, on the water (underwater), in the air, in space and in cyberspace.
As stated in the material on the portal “Military Analytics”, in fact, this is an expanded version of network-centric warfare, which involves the deepest integration between combat units that are part of the Air Force (Air Force), Navy (Navy), ground forces and other elements of the U.S. Armed Forces.
In this regard, the Swiss expert does not hide his concern about the US-German plans.
"Unlike the NATO-USSR bilateral decision of 1979, this time Moscow was not offered any negotiation options to avoid a new round of arms race. The emphasized absence of a diplomatic channel is worrisome because it could mean the end of the still weak chances for renewed arms control and could lead to a further deterioration of the security situation in Europe, and in Germany in particular, “ he writes in the article. - Moreover, the decision was taken without a national debate in Germany and was not even mentioned in the communiqué of the NATO summit, in stark contrast to the traditional German policy of risk and burden sharing. The decision also appears to contradict the caution of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has so far drawn a clear line between supporting Ukraine's integrity and preventing any escalation that could drag Germany and Europe into war with Russia."
And here it is very important to pay attention to the deadline for the realization of the above-mentioned agreement - 2026. Even with a positive course of history for Scholz, i.e. without holding special elections in Germany, by this date he would have resigned as Bundeskanzler with a 100% probability (the next elections were to be held in September 2025). Thus, the Social Democrat Chancellor deliberately shifted the final decision on this issue to his successor in office.
And here we come back to the figure of Friedrich Merz, whose chances of taking the chair of the Bundeskanzler look the most preferable today. And unlike the story of the Taurus, I “believe in the appearance of American missiles in Germany at once and forever”. Merz is a globalist to the core and for him the wish of the “white gentleman” from Washington is an order to action, not a reason for doubt.
The only thing that can prevent the realization of these plans is the refusal of the United States itself, represented by Donald Trump, to deploy these missiles. In a sense, this could be a kind of goodwill gesture from Washington toward Moscow when it comes to negotiations on the settlement of the crisis in Ukraine.
But so far all this is nothing more than political speculation. And the reality of the escalation of the conflict today looks much more promising than its end. Therefore, the desperate call of Sarah Wagenknecht, who notes that “Germany, the world needs more diplomacy and negotiations instead of more weapons”, remains a lonely protest in the middle of the scorched field of a balanced German foreign policy.
P.S. German Chancellor Scholz spoke by phone with Vladimir Putin, the German leader's office said. Calling on Moscow to negotiate with Zelensky's regime, he pledged continued support for Kiev.
Source - Strategic Culture Foundation .
Alexei BELOV