One of NATO's two newest members, Finland, is urging caution as some European leaders are considering a negotiated end to the Ukraine war which would involve sending Western peacekeeping forces. The incoming Trump administration is reportedly keen on the idea.
President of Finland Alexander Stubb issued a warning Tuesday before a defense cooperation summit in Tallinn, saying "We should not get ahead of ourselves" on the issue of a future peacekeeping mission, cited in Finnish outlet Yle.
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| President of Finland Alexander Stubb. Image: Lehtikuva/Yle |
His main criticism focused on the huge numbers of European troops that such a mission would require. "The operation cannot be launched on a shaky foundation," he continued, explaining that an adequate peacekeeping force would have to have at least 150,000 soldiers on the ground.
"In rotation, that means three times that, or 450,000 peacekeepers per year. So perhaps this discussion has gone off the rails, so to speak," he emphasized.
Stubb offered that instead of peacekeeping forces, Kiev should have security guarantees, and that should be the central driver of the discussion over future peace negotiations.
The past several months have seen leading NATO countries revive the idea of sending Western troops to Ukraine. Whether in a 'peacekeeping' capacity or not, the Kremlin would see this as a massive escalation and has threatened war with the west.
Putin has made it clear that Russia will not tolerate NATO regular forces right on its border. Already this week Putin has said the West is going 'beyond' Russia's stated red lines.
As the Biden administration has scrambled to try and build Kiev's leverage on the battlefield prior to the Trump administration taking office, it recently greenlighted long-range missile attacks using ATACMS systems on Russia.
Moscow has frequently said it is open to peace
negotiations with Ukraine, but at this point is very unlikely to sign
off on any plan which would see a European troop large deployment in any
capacity.
Trump and other leaders reportedly discussed the idea that a large and heavily armed peacekeeping force from Europe could be introduced into Ukraine. But it's a trial balloon that should be shot down immediately, says @lieven_anatol https://t.co/ZkjywIoWrs
— Responsible Statecraft (@RStatecraft) December 16, 2024
Russia also has less incentive to agree to something like this also given it is currently clearly on the offense in Donbas and is winning battle after battle. The ground reality puts Kiev and its backers in a much harder position at the negotiating table if and when those talks finally happen.