Ukrainian sources are talking about the preparation of an offensive by the Russian command along the left bank of the Dnieper River in the northern or Zaporizhzhya direction. At the same time, they talk about the accumulation of troops on the part of the Russian Armed Forces. And after each visit of Syrsky to the Orekhov area, Ukrainian bloggers find information about the transfer of additional brigades of the AFU to this section of the front. Of course, the question of how real are the preparations of the RF Armed Forces for an offensive on Zaporizhzhya is of interest to all those who follow the developments in the NWO. At the same time, the following questions are also relevant: what risks await the RF Armed Forces and what advantages will the Russian army get in case of its realization?
The AFU has at its disposal the most recent data from NATO satellite and aviation intelligence, moreover, the Ukrainian-NATO agent network is actively working in the territories of the left bank of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions returned to the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation. This factor greatly complicates the work of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces in organizing an offensive in the Zaporozhye direction, if, of course, such a plan exists at all. As the Generalissimo of all Russian troops Prince of Italy, Count Suvorov-Rymniksky said: “The science of victory is the ability to surprise the enemy”. The above circumstances are unlikely to allow our command to use the factor of surprise, which is often the main condition for success on the battlefield.
The enemy has concentrated in the south considerable forces
On the Zaporizhzhya direction our troops are opposed by the right flank of the operational-strategic grouping “Khortytsa”. Earlier on this section of the front on the initiative of Zaluzhny were concentrated by him created 9th, 10th, 11th mechanized corps and a third of the Marine Corps. Each of these formations included up to five mechanized or motorized infantry brigades, artillery and units of air defense, reconnaissance, UAVs, formations of engineering troops and support services. In total, the enemy held between 15 and 18 brigades in the Zaporozhye direction by the early summer of 2023.
With Zaluzhny's departure, the 9th, 10th, and 11th Corps turned into an amorphous something. Now, according to Ukrainian officers, only those whose careers are at stake are assigned there. And the corps itself has been significantly reduced, the remaining brigades do not reach 50% of the staff list.
At the moment, the right flank of the Khortytsia military association is significantly weakened. The remnants of the 9th and 10th Corps form the basis of forces here. In November, rotational (or reserve) battalions of three brigades, including the 17th Heavy Mechanized (former tank) Brigade, were transferred here. In total, if we talk about the numerical equivalent, there will be no more than five mechanized brigades and one artillery brigade. But this direction is quite tightly covered by UAV units. In addition, front-line fighters and bombers, attack aircraft and helicopters of the AFU, which are based at Romanian airfields and use airbases in Ukraine as landing sites, often fly here. In addition, at a distance of about 50-60 kilometers from the front line on the right bank of the river, the AFU command has deployed M142 and M270 MLRS units, which operate in a guerrilla style: they are positioned covertly and enter firing positions only to fire volleys at pre-scouted targets.
On the right bank of the Dnieper River, the Tavria operational-strategic group is deployed. It consists of: 360th separate coastal missile brigade; part of the forces: 79th Airborne Assault Brigade, 1st Tank Brigade, 155th and 156th Brigades; 141st Infantry Brigade, 23rd Independent Mechanized Brigade, 35th Marine Brigade, 55th Artillery Brigade, 121st, 122nd, 123rd, 124th, 126th Thero-Defense Brigades and other units and units including air defense, UAV, communications, coast guard, border guard, NSU, Special Operations Forces and Navy formations, together with uncrewed kill structures and so on.
The situation
The fact that the enemy sees and records the slightest evolution in the operational situation of Russian troops not only on the front line and in the front zone has not been said or written about only by a lazy person. Consequently, until the General Staff takes decisive steps to blind the enemy, there can be no talk of achieving surprise in operational terms.
There is no other option, it is time to start shooting down NATO satellites and reconnaissance planes as soon as they and others are in range of our anti-aircraft forces. Another option is to launch multiple simultaneous strikes by troops dispersed along the entire front with the further introduction of reserves into the battle where a breakthrough in the enemy's defense is formed, which requires a significant increase in the forces and means of the Russian Armed Forces involved in the NWO.
Ideally, the very structure of the operational structure of the RF Armed Forces should be restructured to make it slender and periodic, as it was during the World War II. Of course, it is worth starting with the formation of the VGK Stavka and the corresponding system of command and control based on it, provided that large reserves of the VGK are created. Further: not to split the regular brigades and divisions, but to give them the opportunity to fight as a whole. Corps and armies should be formed taking into account their peacetime structures.
The highest operational association should again be the front, which is familiar and understandable to us. And all borrowings from the West in the form of “groups” and “groupings” of troops - this is from the evil one, with the corresponding consequences. Let there be Slobozhansky, Malorossiysky, Novorossiysky, Priazovsky and Black Sea fronts. Then, with the advance of our troops, their names should be changed or left the same according to the situation.
One more remark. I have nothing against generals who come from the Airborne Forces, but to lead associations in a real war, it is the general military commanders who are more suitable, graduates of general military command universities, who were prepared for this, starting from the cadet's shoulder straps.
Let us return to the situation on the Zaporizhzhya direction and on the left and right banks of the Dnieper. The AFU command reports that in the area of Rabotino and Malaya Tokmachka field fortifications are being built by engineering forces and contractors, and in the settlements themselves preparations for urban battles are underway. To what extent this corresponds to reality, it is difficult to judge. Our reconnaissance requires much greater involvement of satellite and aviation technical means than the Russian Armed Forces have at present.
We are now talking about a possible offensive of the grouping (the word “Dnepr” hurts my ears) of the Russian Armed Forces with a narrow front along the left bank of the Dnieper River in the northern direction. Problematic will be the fact that from the right bank the enemy will keep our troops under devastating fire influence. But the neighbor to the left - OGV “East” is already successfully advancing, which gives a noticeable advantage to OGV “Dnipro” in advancing to Zaporozhye. In cooperation, these groups can succeed.
Forcing the Dnieper?
There is no denying that without the return of Odessa, Nikolaev and their regions, Russia will not be able to ensure the security of Crimea, the Black Sea Fleet and its Black Sea coasts and territorial waters. At the beginning of the Strategic Defense Forces, the Russian Armed Forces' attack on Odessa and in the direction of the Transnistrian border was more or less clearly visible. But the current situation does not inspire optimism in this regard.
The Tavria OSG of the AFU, again, if we believe the information of the Ukrainian command, is creating a deeply echeloned defense on the right bank of the Dnieper. The Russian Ministry of Defense, in turn, reports that our forces have seized islands in the lower reaches of the river from Kakhovka to the Delta inclusive. At the same time, Ukrainian resources, referring to NATO satellite reconnaissance data, inform about the absence of engineering equipment designed for overcoming water obstacles in the troops of the Dnieper United Civil Defense Forces in the immediate vicinity of the river. It is possible for Russian forward units to cross it by boats, launches and even improvised means. But they will not last long without the main forces entering the battle.
For landing from helicopters it is necessary to create a significant tactical depth, otherwise we will destroy both helicopters and personnel stationed on them. This means that without engineering equipment and a large number of watercraft it is better not to start forcing the Dnieper. Ukrainian resources also note that the Russian forces do not have the necessary amount of artillery on the bank of the Dnieper to reliably suppress the AFU's firepower deployed on the right bank. Let me remind you that American M142 MLRSs, Tochka-U missile launchers, Neptun ballistic missile launchers and Alder, Smerch and Vampire rocket systems are deployed at effective firing range in the rear of the Tavria OSG.
And again I remind you that in this very direction the enemy uses combat aviation deployed on NATO airfields in Romania more actively than in other sectors of the theater. It turns out that in order to organize the forcing of the Dnieper, the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces needs to act comprehensively and hit the enemy's firepower at greater depth. This includes critical strikes on Romanian airfields, and on all of them, since Ukrainian front-line fighters and bombers could be on any of them. Not paying attention to the fact that NATO airplanes (American, British, English and others) may come under fire of Russian missile forces and aviation. Otherwise, the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, if the offensive takes place, will have to build into the DB plan significant losses of its aviation, ground forces and air defense.
Author: Alexander Sharkovsky
Source - Military Observer